Hundreds of thousands of people marched through the streets of Budapest on Sunday. From above, the Hungarian capital looked like a sea of flags. But the sense of unity was deceptive. In reality, Budapest was the stage for a street-level duel.

Both Orbán and opposition leader Peter Magyar used the national holiday on March 15 for major campaign events. I attended both, and it quickly became clear: their messages could not be more different.

Viktor Orbán and his ministers relied on anger, falsehoods, and fear in their speeches. If you believe the Fidesz government, Ukraine is on the verge of invading Hungary. The state propaganda machine has plastered the streets with posters of a smiling Zelensky. Orbán’s face is nowhere to be seen. Instead, the same message appears over and over again: an unholy alliance of Brussels, Berlin, and Kyiv wants to subjugate Hungary and drag it into war.

Peter Magyar struck a completely different tone. With his Tisza party aiming to form the next government, his speech painted a picture of a democratic and pro-European future. He emphasized Hungary’s firm place in the EU and NATO, spoke about fighting corruption, and promised to repair the healthcare and education systems. Anyone who joined the Tisza march could feel the people’s desire for change. There was a sense of spring in the air.

The gleaming center of Budapest can almost make you forget, but Orbán’s years of corruption have left deep scars across the country. Just a 45-minute drive away lies the town of Monor, where people live in deep poverty, far below European standards. The Roma community there has no paved roads, no running water, and only intermittent electricity. The contrast with the Orbán family’s real estate is staggering. In and around his hometown of Felcsút, Orbán and his family have been acquiring one historic Habsburg estate after another, investing what critics say are misappropriated billions to turn them into private palaces or golf courses.

What happens in Hungary on April 12 will have consequences for all of Europe. At the moment, Tisza is leading in the polls. For the first time in years, the Kremlin-friendly Orbán faces the prospect of defeat. But the outcome is far from certain. Driven by fear, Orbán is now handing out election incentives to numerous social groups and professions. Pensioners are promised a 14th monthly payment. Members of the police and military are to receive a “weapons bonus” equivalent to six months’ salary. Teachers are set to receive a one-off payment of nearly €400 shortly before the election.

On top of that, Orbán has spent 16 years dismantling democratic structures and reshaping the system to his advantage. He has altered the electoral system, brought the media into line, and installed Fidesz loyalists in all key institutions. Whether Magyar can win this uneven contest remains to be seen.